The NFL had itself one heck of a week. From Joe Burrow throwing 525 yards to Dallas scoring 42 points in a half, it was a wild week, to say the least. But the bigger picture is the playoff picture. 24 teams still remain in playoff contention, as weeks 17-18 will shape the draft, playoffs, and much more.
Despite losing many players to the COVID/reserve list in week 16 (hence Ian Book actually played an NFL snap), the NFL enjoyed itself an action-packed week over Christmas weekend. This action needs analysis, and I’m bringing it here for you. If you haven’t, make sure to follow @nflmayhem on Instagram for updates and news. Let’s roll:
NFC Wild Card Spots
The NFC has been unpredictable. While 5 of the 7 spots have been clinched (Cowboys, Packers, Rams, Buccaneers, and Cardinals), 2 wildcard spots remain open. The Eagles (8-7), 49ers (8-7), Falcons (7-8), Vikings (7-8), Saints (7-8), and Washington (6-9) remain in contention for those two spots. Here are some clinching week 17 clinching scenarios:
- Eagles clinch a playoff berth with a PHI win + MIN loss + NO loss OR a PHI win + MIN loss + SF win
- 49ers clinch a playoff berth with a SF win + NO loss
The 49ers will face off against the Texans at home, the Saints welcome the Panthers to town, the Eagles will travel to Washington, and Minnesota will take on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
It seems highly likely that the Eagles can clinch a playoff berth this week, as Washington was obliterated 56-14 by Dallas, Minnesota lost to Rodgers earlier this season, and the 49ers should easily beat the Texans. However, you never know with the NFC, and every team is still well in contention.
COVID Ended Multiple Team’s Seasons
As the new Omicron variant has begun to spread in the United States, organizations have begun to see many unfortunate consequences. In the month of December alone, 521 players have been placed on the COVID/reserve list. This number isn’t slowing down anymore, as big names like Carson Wentz, Haason Reddick, Mike Evans, and Matt Judon have landed on the list and will likely miss a crucial week.
In Week 16, multiple teams suffered from this. The Saints were forced to start rookie QB Ian Book which led to a blowout from Miami. The Ravens lost backup QB Tyler Huntley along with big pieces of their defense, leading Joe Burrow to throw for 525 yards in a 20 point win. The Chargers missed 16 players on Sunday, causing them to lose to Houston (there isn’t much excuse to this one though).
NFL fans and players were upset after commissioner Roger Goodell delayed multiple games to a Tuesday, even after claiming he would not do so pre-season. Just look at the player responses:
AFC North Is the Tightest Division in Football
The AFC North is the most competitive division in football, and it isn’t particularly close. The current standings:
- Beganls (9-6)
- Ravens (8-7)
- Steelers (7-7-1)
- Browns (7-8)
The Bengals and Ravens just came off one of the biggest games of the years. With the Bengals winning 41-21, they were able to clinch the top spot in the division (for now). Joe Burrow and his skill core had themselves a day, especially as Tee Higgins recorded 12 catches, 194 yards, and 2 TDs. The Browns meanwhile fell to Green Bay on Christmas day, and the Steelers were embarrassed by Mahomes and co. on the road.
While it may look like the Steelers and Browns are pretty much out of it, they still remain in the hunt. It’s not much easier for the other teams. The Bengals have to take on Kansas City this week, followed by a Week 18 matchup with the Browns. While Lamar may return this week, he will come back against a stacked Rams team that will be favored in that one. However, with the Chiefs being the only team in the AFC to have clinched a playoff spot, every AFC North team has a chance to play January football this year.
*This note is just your reminder that Joe Burrow was snubbed from the Pro Bowl.
The Dallas Cowboys Are Elite
If you were looking for a competitive Sunday Night Football game, Week 16 was not the week for you. After an electric first drive, Washington threw an INT on their second play. The momentum pretty much never stopped rolling after that, as Dallas held a 42-7 lead at halftime.
Before we continue, CB Trevon Diggs needs a bit of analysis. Trevon Diggs is a ball hawk. With a league-leading 11 interceptions, he absolutely deserves tons of respect. But the hype train needs to slow down a bit. The interceptions are there, but his yards allowed, passer rating allowed, and yards per reception allowed are not in the elite category. His great ability to catch picks comes from being a WR in his past, but his coverage skills need to be enhanced. Trevon Diggs is a pro bowl corner, but he should not be in conversations with Jalen Ramsey or be considered a DPOY. If anything, I would consider Micah Parsons a better contender for DPOY.
But regardless, the combination of their aggressive D-line and elite secondary has made them a top defense in football. And with that offense, good luck to anyone stopping it if Dak is on a roll. Dallas has the ability to contend with anyone in the NFC and is easily one of the top Super Bowl contenders this season. Maybe Dallas can finally win a 21st-century ring.
Aaron Rodgers Should Win MVP
Every year it feels like this man can’t get any better. And he just does. Rodgers threw an easy 3 touchdowns on Christmas day, advancing Green Bay to 12-3 on the year. What makes Aaron Rodgers special is his ability to make the players around him better. Rodgers is often critiqued on his leadership skills, but he has made guys like Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Robert Tonyan, and more into key pieces in Green Bay. With players like these, his numbers remain insane:
While Rodgers is competing with guys like Jonathan Taylor, Tom Brady, and Cooper Kupp, it seems pretty obvious to me that Rodgers will win. Taylor and Kupp have been exceptional at their positions, but the probability of a player at RB or WR winning MVP is pretty low. While Brady has maintained his elite level of play this year, his valuableness to the team is not nearly the same as Rodgers, as Brady simply has a stronger skill group and more talented defense. It seems like Rodgers is going back-to-back on MVPs.
Buffalo – Pretenders or Contenders?
I truly struggle to evaluate the Bills. One week, they are getting blown out by the Colts at home, and the next they control the Patriots in Gillette. Their 6 losses come from a split with the Patriots, a beatdown from the Colts, an OT road loss to the Bucs, a Week 1 loss to the Steelers, a 3 point MNF loss to the Titans, and a road loss to the Jaguars. While the Jaguars and Steelers were bad losses, they were early season games that can be ignored now.
By staying competitive with Tom Brady, and beating New England on the road, I want to say that Buffalo is a contender. Josh Allen has been playing at a top-tier level (also snubbed from the Pro Bowl), and now has some playoff experience to get him through the 2021 postseason.
It feels safe to say that Buffalo is a playoff lock at this point. Their main goal is to win the AFC East (they sit at the top but share the same record as the Pats) and gain home-field advantage in the daunting Buffalo environment. If the offensive line can make a late-season adjustment and protect Josh Allen for more than 0.5 seconds, Buffalo could finally make it through to a February game.
Thanks for reading! Feel free to leave a comment with your thoughts, and follow @nflmayhem on Instagram.
